Topinka declared winner of Illinois primary
Judy Baar Topinka declared winner of Illinois GOP primary
It appeared late Tuesday that Judy Baar Topinka had survived a blizzard - and four aggressive fellow Republicans - to become the second woman in Illinois history to win a major party nomination for governor.
Although statewide results were incomplete because of voting-machine snafus in Chicago, The Associated press declared Topinka a winner shortly after midnight. Throughout the evening, she had been narrowly but consistently beating dairy magnate Jim Oberweis in a GOP primary that was much closer than polls had predicted.
Topinka, a Chicagoan and social moderate, had enjoyed a sizable lead in pre-election polls over conservative dairy magnate Oberweis, but it appeared that conservative Metro East Republicans were more willing to fight bad weather to get to the polls than were their more moderate Chicago counterparts. In the end, Topinka had enough support upstate to overcome the 2-1 margin Oberweis had in Metro East.
The news appears similar for Topinka’s preferred running mate, DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett, who defeated state Sen. Steve Rauschenberger, R-Elgin. Rauschenberger, who aligned himself with gubernatorial hopeful Ron Gidwitz, had sharply criticized Topinka during the campaign. A Topinka/Rauschenberger ticket would have been entertaining but ineffective.
This sets up what is sure to be a hotly contested race for the fall between beleaguered governor Rod Blagojevich and Topinka. Election polls show Blago faring worse against Topinka than against either Oberweis or Gidwitz. The February Rasmussen poll shows the Democrat leading Topinka 42% to 36%, Oberweis 49% to 37%, Gidwitz 47% to 33%, and State Senator Bill Brady 47% to 29%. This is substantially better than in January, when Blago actually trailed Topinka 48% to 37%.
The change from January to February reflects more on Topinka’s tough primary battle than on an improvement by the governor, as more people now view Blagojevich unfavorably (53%) than did in January (49%). Now that Republicans will unite behind Topinka, it is likely that the race is either a dead heat or a slight lead for Topinka.
