Bernie Miklasz states the obvious about the boneheaded comments by Billy Packer and Jim Nantz last Sunday:
Packer and his pal Nantz only told half of the story. By dwelling on the number of invitations and bringing up recent NCAA Tournament results to justify the rant, the CBS crew left out one key point of discussion: the seeding in the NCAA Tournament.No one of sound mind will declare that the Missouri Valley Conference is equal to the Atlantic Coast Conference. The number of tournament slots is only one way to measure. And just because the selection committee awarded each league four spots in the tournament, the decision wasn’t a statement on parity.
The selection committee rightfully acknowledged the ACC’s superior status through seeding designations. Duke is a No. 1 seed, North Carolina is a No. 3, Boston College is a No. 4, and N.C. State is a No. 10. The best the Valley got this time around was a No. 7 seed for Wichita State. Northern Iowa is a No. 10, Southern Illinois is a No. 11, and Bradley is a No. 13.
Seeding is, of course, the key. Duke, North Carolina and Georgia Tech have never been seeded worse than a #8. Bernie points out that even the power conferences don’t do as well when they get bad seeds:
From 1994-2005, none of the teams from power conferences had a winning record when seeded No. 6 or worse. Here’s the rundown: ACC (16-18); Big 10 (29-32); Big Eight/12 (21-28); Big East (21-22); Pac 10 (18-19); SEC (10-18).
I drilled down the numbers a bit, and it’s even worse than that. The ACC’s record is skewed by NC State’s upset championship in 1983, when they went 6-0 as a 6 seed. Take that away, and the ACC is only 10-18 (0.357) when seeded 6 or worse. And what about the seeds the Valley actually got this year? The ACC is 13-14 as a 7 seed, 4-2 as a 10 seed, and 0-1 as an 11 seed. No ACC team has ever been a 13 seed. As 1-4 seeds, the ACC is 191-71. As 5 or higher, it drops to 62-53.
Overall, the Valley’s not doing that badly. Double-digit seeds shouldn’t be expected to win, and usually they don’t. Since 1979, teams seeded 10 or higher are 201-653 (.235).
It’s not that the committee gives too much respect to the mid-major conferences like the Valley. It’s that they don’t give enough. Unless you start seeding the conference champion like a true champion, the conference will never get a chance to prove itself. Even Wichita State is going to have to play a 2 seed in the second round. Better yet, the power conferences could start scheduling home-and-home series with the Wichita States of the world, but that’s never going to happen.
